Obligatory Post Speculating on Google+

I love product launches. It's the perfect time to speculate with no inconvenient research or history to get in the way.

This goes for everything on this blog, but it's probably worth highlighting in this instance that these opinions are my own. They do not represent the thoughts and opinions of Google, the Google+ team, or anyone else who works at Google.

My history of speculating on products tends to be bullish on Google and cynical of social. I thought Android and Wave were going to change the world, and that Twitter was a waste of time.

Twitter with conversations

Despite my initial reservations I'm a big user of Twitter, but I find that most of my interaction there is effectively anonymous - I'm either reading things by interesting people I don't know, or sharing things I think are interesting with people I've never met.

I've found that half my use of Google+ works similarly - by posting publicly and creating a "My Stream" circle full of interesting folks who I don't know personally.

Where I think Google+ adds value is with threaded conversations. By attaching the conversation that emerges from each post, anonymity is reduced and the process of sharing and reading are suddenly more social.

Facebook with sharing controls

I remember quite clearly the moment my use of Facebook went from regular to sporadic. My manager's passing comment on my most recent status update (something along the lines of "I'm so bored I'm considering setting myself on fire just to liven up my day") prompted this blog post.

I've always maintained a policy of only adding people I know and would recognize in person as Facebook friends. Nonetheless, when your extended family, school friends, and current / former work colleagues are all reading the same stream, and seeing the same pictures, the intersection of "appropriate material" rapidly tends towards zero.

Using circles to fragment my audience has been an elegant solution for me.

I've created the obvious circles like "friends", "family", and "Googlers" but I've found smaller adhoc circles particularly useful when socializing

Socializing+

In the paleolithic age we used email to arrange social events and share the photos afterwards, but it never really worked.

Facebook is a good alternative, but it requires adding people you don't necessarily know to your "friends" list.

Being able to create an adhoc circle (or just add individual people to a post) - makes it easy to work out the details for a 4th July BBQ - and then post the photos - all in one place.

I've not spent a lot of time with Huddles or Hangouts yet, but they seem a natural extension. I can see using Huddle instead of SMS to let folks know you're running late, to get parking advice, or confirm the orders for a lunch-run. I've used similar products (most notably Beluga and GroupMe) to coordinate amongst a large group at conferences or events like MWC or Google I/O.

Social photo sharing without wanting to punch your screen

Photos are probably the reason most folks joined Facebook to begin with. It's also the reason many people hate Facebook.

I'll happily rave about the Google+ photo experience which is awesome. It's easy to share photos with just a small group, or post your best amateur photography for the world to critique.

I don't want to be social at work

For all the good uses, let me highlight a couple that I don't see catching on.

I admit to having been a little skeptical of Google+ during the dogfooding stage. With 20/20 hindsight, I think a lot of that had to do with it being effectively a corporate social network. My email inbox is full enough as it is; I really don't need another stream to monitor in order to be involved in work conversations.

This is not a blog

You'll note that I haven't posted this directly on Google+.

I don't want to read your essay in my social stream, just give me an abstract and link to your blog. For added bonus points, make sure your blog links back to your Google+ profile.

In Conclusion

Twitter is entirely public and as a result my interactions there are regular but tend towards the impersonal. Facebook is limited to people I know so the interactions are more personal, but (increasingly) less frequent.

Google+  lets me choose which group of people I'm comfortable sharing something with to a degree that lets me have regular, personal conversations.

As many of you have no doubt noticed - that makes for an addictive combination.

What's the Point of Tablets Anyway?

A couple of weeks ago I was fortunate enough to come into possession of a Samsung Galaxy Tab. It's fair to say that I've been eager to get my hands on a PADD tablet since some time around 1987.

While the utility of a portable, touch-screen, connected device was never in question on the Enterprise, their utility in the 21st century is still being determined.

So what, exactly, are tablets good for?

The Shared Communal Device

I've already found the Galaxy Tab to be the go-to device in the living room. It's perfect for shared photo-viewing, checking actors in IMDB, and adding something to the shopping basket. The large, bright screen and long battery life make it a much better viewing experience than a mobile, and simpler and more convenient than passing around a laptop.

Modern smartphones are intensely personal. They hold more private information than most people would ever willingly share. Would you hand over your phone to a friend for 30mins? What about your wife / husband / girlfriend / boyfriend?

I've created a new shared Gmail account, specifically for my Galaxy Tab (and potentially my GoogleTV), to make it easier to share. As prices come down I see a bunch of these around the house - probably replacing laptops and TVs.

The Ultimate Gaming Device

Games on tablets look incredible. A bright, sharp screen with a ton of screen real estate work superbly with touch controlled games.

The bigger screens could have been designed specifically to support multiplayer gaming. Games like Scrabble would work great with the screen becoming the game board, but that's just the start.

I grew up playing RPGs and CCGs. Imagine playing them when everyone has a tablet. Each player would have their card deck (or character sheet) on their tablet. Another device (probably at least 10") sits in the middle of the table and displays the cards in play (or character positions on a map).

The Multi-Media Entertainment Center and eBook Reader

Back in the day, I owned an Archos 320. 20Gb of audio and video on a 2.5" drive with a 4" screen. With no SSDs in sight, moving it while playing video let you feel the torque!

Today's tablets have up to 64Gb of solid-state storage, with many also including SD card slots letting you double that. A 7", 16:10 aspect ratio screen is the perfect surface for watching movies on the move, and HDMI output will let you plug your library into your giant flat screen TV.

Add an eBook reader app and you've got one device with all you music, movies, and books. That makes for an epic entertainment center.

While you'll need to pry my hardcover books out of my cold, dead, hands - I still think that within the next 5 years, most people will access all their movies, music, pictures, and books from the cloud. When that happens tablets will be the perfect portable screen on which to consume any kind of entertainment media.

The Laptop Replacement

Is the tablet set to replace the laptop? I've noticed a few iPads in meetings as people leave their laptops behind, preferring tablets for their portable computing needs. Typing on a fast, responsive 10" touch screen is actually a workable exercise, and it's the perfect platform for presenting an impromptu slide-show pitch or showing off your app / website.

I don't see tablets replacing the laptops we use at work for tasks that require significant typing (like writing code), but the future of netbooks might have just gotten a little grim.

So what's the real deal?

My gut says tablets will become increasingly popular as shareable devices that double as personal entertainment centers. The big screen and wide viewing angle of tablets makes them less private than phones. Still personal but not inherently private.

As app developers, we are uniquely positioned to both influence, and be influenced by, how people will use these new devices, so what do you think?

1. Communal Internet Portal
2. Ultimate Gaming Device
3. Multi-Media Entertainment Center and eBook Reader
4. Laptop Replacement
5. All of the above

Any of them sound about right or am I full of it? Let me know in the comments!

The Future of Mobile: Invisible, connected devices with infinite screens

The history of smartphones looks something like this: At the end of 2008 the very first Android handset was available on T-Mobile in the US. The iPhone has existed for 3 years. The very first Blackberry featuring push email came out in 2002.

From WAP and push email to iPhone in 5 years. From one iPhone to 60 different Android handsets in under 3 years. At that rate it's challenging to create a credible mobile roadmap that extends as far as 6 months - and the rate of change is increasing.

At the current rate, nearly anything is possible in 20 years

Lately a lot of people have asked me what I think is the future of mobile. Some people just want to know what device they should buy at Christmas, but others are looking for a 20 year outlook. 20 years!  The first GSM network had barely launched 20 years ago! Predication at that scale is destined for failure and embarrassment. But I won't let that stop me.

Bigger screens are better

Mobile devices are morphing. Tablets have been talked about for years, and the iPad and Kindle provide the kind of experience people have been waiting for. Browsing pictures, watching videos, and reading books work really well on a screen that size.

Still, I find the iPad heavy and bulky. The ultimate device would be the size and weight of my mobile but include a screen that could be unfolded or rolled out to provide a better display for watching movies and playing games.

Actually, the ultimate device would be entirely virtual. I’d put on my glasses (or contact lenses) and look at any surface to see an augmented version of reality. Anything from interactive holographs, to augmented reality, or a cinema screen that stretches across the horizon. Everyone could see their own version of reality on a screen the size of their visual field.

1 year  High res screens, tablet devices, and HD output from mobiles.
5 years  Flexible displays and built in HD projectors.
10 years  Transparent LCD patches that can be applied to regular glasses.
20 years  Contact lenses that project a visual feed directly onto your retina.

Full keyboards are better. No keyboards is best

Keyboard designs (like the that on the SE Mini Pro) continue to improve, as do on-screen keyboards with technologies like Swype.

The Nintendo Wii and Microsoft's Kinect suggest that gestures might largely take the place of keyboards and touch screens for some interactions. Better multi-touch and increasingly accurate voice input will make physical keyboards almost entirely redundant.

For those who want to write something longer than an email, gesture recognition (capable of tracking fingers), combined with eye-focus tracking will provide virtual full-size keyboards.

If we’re thinking long-term, we can look forward to research like this letting us control our devices using our minds.

1 year  Wireless keyboards, voice input, and gestures.
5 years  Larger multitouch screens, better gesture input, and flawless voice recognition.
10 years  Full virtual keyboards and voice input eliminate physical keyboards entirely.
20 years  Mind control.

Smaller devices that last longer

The Sony Ericsson X10 Mini is a ridiculous 83x50x16mm and weighs less than 100g. When screens stop being a primary consideration for device size, the devices will shrink dramatically.

That leaves the problem of  the battery. Mobile processors will become more efficient, and fuel cells may help battery life in the short term, but ultimately we’ll be powering mobile device using biology and ambient energy. Biokinetic and ambient energy will likely be the start, but the future suggests a move away from silicon and towards biological processors. The computer you inject is more likely to resemble a specialized virus than a tiny silicon chip.

1 year  Lighter, thinner devices that last longer.
5 years  Tiny devices powered by fuel cells.
10 years  Devices small enough to embed into watches and jewellery that never need charging.
20 years  You are the computer.

Connectivity will become ubiquitous

Cloud computing is already a reality. As even more of our data and processing is done in the cloud, continual and uninterrupted Internet connectivity will become increasingly critical.

The incredible growth of smartphones in countries with a mobile data infrastructure to support them is nothing short of phenomenal. It's easy to forget that the real powerhouses of mobile phone use are developing countries - countries that don't have a reliable infrastructure for traditional "wired" Internet access. Citizens there are likely to access the Internet exclusively via their mobile phones.

Over the next decade we'll see carriers (and new challengers) aggressively rolling out faster, more reliable networks and technologies that cover larger areas across the globe.

At the same time, you'll be using your mobile to control your TV, monitor your fridge, and start your car.

1 year  3G/4G and WiFi covers most of industrial world. Every mobile device comes with an unlimited (or high-cap) data plan. Mobiles start interacting with other consumer electronics and cars.
5 years  4G/5G and WiFi extend to cover the entire developing world.
10 years  Whitespaces or similar technology means everyone everywhere is connected at all times.
20 years  Connectivity is uninterrupted and ubiquitous. Losing connectivity is like losing power or running water.

What about calls!

Apparently some people use mobile phones to make and receive calls(!) As devices get smaller, keyboards become virtual, and screens move closer to your eyes, you'll need a separate piece of kit to sit near your mouth and ears. Bluetooth headsets will get smaller and more discrete, people apparently talking to themselves in public will become no less creepy or annoying.

Infinity screens, invisible devices, always connected

In 2030 you'll think of smart-phones as quaint anachronisms that died out about 10 years ago, now that all computing is mobile. You’ll be constantly connected to the Internet by a virus that lives in your bloodstream. Contact lenses will provide a truly infinite screen, and you’ll interact with your augmented environment through a combination of mental commands, physical gestures, and voice input.

We'll take all this for granted and complain that we still don't have jetpacks or flying cars.